Light The Fuse | NFL Week 16 Top Game Environments and Core Plays (UPDATED)

Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!

In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes

Week 16 has so many spots to consider. No video this week but I broke down below where I think you can go in each game environment, cheap plays, and sneaky leverage spots that the field might not be considering – 

• ATL/ARI
  • Need to watch injury news here but this is a sick game environment with two teams who can’t stop a nosebleed with upside offenses to boot. Prefer stacking this from the ARI side and if we get MHJ out (he’s probably playing), Michael Wilson is the best WR play on the slate. If MHJ is in, I have a TON of interest in MHJ/McBride/Brissett stacks if you can surround it with enough value.
    • UPDATE – MHJ is supposed to be on a pitch count so I’d lower exposure, but he’s cheap enough where if he catches a few deep shots he can pay off
  • Falcons like to play a lot of Cover 3 that sort of morphs into a single high man look. They get murdered by X receivers who catch deep balls and MHJ fits that build. $5,600 is a fantastic price.
  • Cousins stacks are in play for large field but truthfully, I think just taking Bijan or full on gamestacking this with two ATL pieces is more viable. His weapons are expensive but it’s doable.
  • Sneaky leverage – The uncertainty with the RB situation for ARI is something to note considering they only have Michael Carter and Demercado. Carter is more likely to be the lead back but Demercado is a natural pass catcher. Think both of these are a sneaky way to get exposure to this game without taking on the ownership.

• TEN/KC
  • Was down on Minshew stacks before diving in deeper. After taking a deeper look, think KC stacks are the quintessential Cheap QB +2 to fit the studs. And his weapons are CHEAP. The Chiefs ruled out almost everyone worth a shit besides Kelce, Hollywood, and Kelce. This TEN defense has been a pretty sharp run D the last 6 weeks but their secondary has fallen off a cliff.
  • The most expensive double stack you can make here (Minshew/Worthy/Kelce) will only cost you $13,600. If you can get 50-60 points from this block of players, you may be set up for success considering you still have almost $6,100 left per roster spot. In large field I don’t know if this carries enough ceiling but in small fields, this absolutely can give you a sturdy floor. Not touching the RBs on KC because of the opportunity cost of the position.
  • Sneaky leverage – TEN stacks are in play for large field. Chimere Dike and both TEs are just WAY too cheap and KC has been susceptible to the middle of the field. With all these injuries and TEN seemingly playing to win every week, think this should be 2-5% of your 150 entries.

• JAX/DEN
  • This game has shootout potential written all over it and DEN stacks will make a big portion of my portfolio and will be one of the places I start for 3-5 entry max builds.  Denver stacks are incredibly cheap for the upside in this game environment. There is some uncertainty with all the WR’s healthy but Sutton seems to have regained the WR1 usage that we expected him to have. $5,700 is too cheap for a red-zone threat who will see 8-10 targets. The Jags run an almost identical defensive scheme to Green Bay and Sutton kills these soft zones that don’t blitz. Adding a secondary piece is fine too but think Nix/Sutton is a great start in all formats.
  • JAX has some strong fantasy appeal too and I think the field is still overrating this DEN defense. They’re very good but they’ve been giving up a ton of offensive production to good offenses. If you want to play Lawrence I’m alright with that given his rushing upside can be realized here against the most man-heavy team in football. Also, Strange, BTJ, Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers are all good enough to win a matchup if they don’t see Surtain. They will push DEN here for sure.
  • Sneaky leverage – The sneakiest leverage point of this game is Etienne BY FAR. The $7K price tag is tough to stomach but what gives him a floor here is his pass game usage. In a super man-heavy spot last week, you saw what he can do in the passing game and he has one of the more consistent RB route running roles in the league. I don’t know if I can click him in the smallest of fields but he’s a great pivot off of Chase Brown in larger field sets. Also, Parker Washington in the slot with a heavy RZ role sub $5K feels like a decent click.

• PIT/DET
  • DET at home off of a tough loss… you know what to do. Stacks are firmly in play here but they aren’t cheap. Amon-Ra is probably my favorite pay up WR this week but overall, there is a real chance that the Lions score 35 points and maybe one guy is fantasy relevant. If you don’t stack this game, you have to consider Gibbs, Amon-Ra, or Jamo as one offs. Not a necessity but you probably should. If you’re playing by pivoting off the optimal, think there are other plays who can rival Gibbs (Achane, Bijan, etc.). Paying up for Amon-Ra doesn’t offer many alternatives.
  • From the PIT side, I won’t stack Aaron Rodgers but do find some of his pass catching options incredibly interesting. DET has a man-heavy approach and it isn’t particularly a good one. Think DK Metcalf is fine but feels expensive. The TE’s are probably where I’d want to go along with Gainwell/Warren.
  • Sneaky leverage – If you need to make expensive pieces work, I think a dart throw on one of these cheap PIT WRs (Calvin Austin, MVS) can be in consideration. But really the leverage is in focusing on these PIT RBs. Gainwell preferably.

• CLE/BUF
  • Might be surprised to see this game here but it’s because there’s some low-owned high upside plays and also some SERIOUS salary relief. Starting with BUF, I do think one of Josh Allen or James Cook can shadow realm you. I lean more towards Cook but Allen +1 will underowned here against this man heavy team that has seemed to pack it on defense to end the year. James Cook is not a must play but he’s definitely someone to be wary of. This Browns D has been gashed two weeks in a row and the Bills use a very similar run scheme to the Titans and you know how that went with Tony Pollard…
  • From the CLE side, Shadeur/Jeudy/Fannin is a good dart throw for large field sets. This BUF defense is nothing to be afraid of but I will say, if you’re playing multiple CLE pieces, you should probably play Josh Allen or James Cook to correlate the game environment.
  • Sneaky leverage – We’ve seen this Bills team get gashed on the ground over and over again. Judkins has failed a bunch and we don’t want to make a habit out of playing RBs on bad teams. But at $6K? If they can establish the run, he can blow this tag out of the water.

• CAR/TB
  • Game with massive implications here and I’m going to keep this one super short and simple.
  • Mike Evans clearly changes the dynamic of this offense. He good at the fooseball. $6,300 is a good price against this soft zone coverage that for some reason likes to deploy a single-high look. Can’t trust the RB situation but with the pressure on, maybe the just feed Bucky all he can handle? I don’t know. Baker has been a bit better and he’s CHUCKING. Think TB stacks are sneaky but I’m more interested in Mike Evans by himself.
  • From CAR, Tet and Coker are always great. TB isn’t a great pass D but they have been SO elite against WRs since Jamel Dean has been back. Don’t mind the RBs as they’ll get receiving looks for sure. I lean Coker for sure because of where he runs his routes.
  • Sneaky leverage – Even though I said I prefer Mike Evans by himself, but TB doubles are nut leverage if they break right. CAR doubles too but I’d probably lean QB/RB/WR rather than two WR here. Buccs give it up to RBs through the air.

• NYG/MIN
  • Sign me up for JJ McCarthy stacks and if you don’t think I’m not taking a stab on the double JJ stack that only costs $10,900? Against this college level, man-heavy secondary against the Giants? You’re out of your mind. Like the doubles here too with Addison, Hockenson, or Nailor. AJ is also in a good spot here as this Giants team can’t stop shit.
  • From the Giants side, I’m a bit lighter on Dart this week. They’ve been bottom of the league in pass rate over expectation since Kafka took over and it seems like they’re just trying to get to the end of the season. Mix that together with a QB who refuses to protect himself when he escapes the pocket, I’m more bullish on MIN stacks than NYG. With that said, these NYG receiving options are decent. I lean Theo as my preferred guy to use in a bringback as MIN has been crushing WRs and QBs for that matter all year. Flores has had this defense playing ELITE that last 2 months and if you’ve been with Paydirt long enough, you know how overrated I feel he is. Have to give credit where it’s due, he’s been on fire.
  • Sneaky leverage – This is probably not where you thought I was going here, but I think one of the sneakier spots of this slate is the Vikings D. Dart has been ok against blitz heavy teams but he’s been pretty pourous against disguise heavy units. Think this is a matchup where a rookie QB is just overmatched. Feel free to add on a RB from MIN if you want too but I’ll be overexposed to MIN defense for sure here.

• NO/NYJ
  • Sign me up for all the Shough stacks this week. This is such a cheap spot for a team that has been legitimately good over the last few weeks and now get a team in the Jets coming to NO who are a dumpster fire in every sense of the word. With that said, I think this game in general is a treasure trove of fantasy plays.
  • Starting on the Jets side, AD Mitchell has a great role but the Saints have been pretty staunch against perimeter WRs and they’ve actually played some good WRs the past few weeks (Waddle, Egbuka, Tet). Not world beaters but considerably good. The scheme would tell us this more of a TE or Metchie spot but AD’s vertical separation and increase in intermediate crossing routes keeps him firmly in play as the highest upside Jets piece and arguably, one of the highest upside plays of the slate in his salary range.
  • For NO, Shough+Olave+Juwan Johnson is just sick nasty. Gordy will have to keep it in his pants this week but this feels like the week it breaks through. NO is also now on their practice squad RBs and while Estime in his own right can catch passes, I don’t believe they’ll run all over NY. The Saints have some motivation here. They want to see what they have in Shough and Kellen Moore wants to end the season streaking.
  • Sneaky leverage – triple up Shough in large field and hope he does to this Jets team what every QB has been able to do. But in small field, the Shough/Olave combo is sharp as hell. Adding Juwan is fine too but you can definitely find a pivot. Breece Hall is also cheap enough where he can wreck this.

Here are stacks that I’m considering heading into Sunday. Please note, these are stacks I’m considering with their Quarterback included! The stacks here may not necessarily reflect the game environments above –

• ARI
• ATL
• KC
• DEN
• DET
• TB
• MIN
• NO
• MIA
• HOU

Finally, here is the core I’m going to be using to start my builds in Small Field/SE. This is subject to change with injury news and comments from coaching staffs, but you can use this as a starting point and pivot off of –

 

UPDATED CORE

 

 

 

 

 

 

BOL! – Jason O