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G-PD Breakdown: MLB DFS Main Slate 5-8-2023

James McCool

Scoring Percentages and Stacking

SF

MIL

SEA

NYY

CHC

The top 5 teams with the highest 8+ runs percentages are good teams to stack in DFS because they consistently score a high number of runs, increasing the chances of success for a lineup featuring multiple hitters from those teams. However, it is important to consider the LevX scores for each team. While SF, MIL, SEA, and CHC have positive LevX scores, indicating that they are potentially undervalued, the NYY has a negative LevX score on both DK and FD platforms. This means that their ownership is high relative to their chances of scoring 8+ runs, which can make them a less optimal choice for stacking compared to the other teams in the top 5.

DK Pitcher Options

Zac Gallen

Nestor Cortes

Freddy Peralta

Hunter Brown

Logan Gilbert

Based on the provided statistics, these five players are good bets to perform well in tournaments. Their high Median scores indicate consistently strong performances, and their top finish percentages and top 5 finish percentages show that they have a history of outperforming others in their respective tournaments. It’s worth noting the significant difference in ownership percentages between large and small field tournaments for some players, such as Nestor Cortes and Logan Gilbert. In these cases, their popularity in small field tournaments can be an indicator of their potential for success, while their relatively lower ownership in large field tournaments may present an opportunity for contrarian picks to capitalize on their overlooked potential.

FD Pitcher Options

Zac Gallen

Nestor Cortes

Freddy Peralta

Hunter Brown

Logan Gilbert

Based on these statistics, the top 5 players with the highest Median scores are good bets to perform well in tournaments. Zac Gallen leads the pack with an impressive 88.60% Top_5_finish percentage, while Nestor Cortes has the highest Large Field Own% difference to the average at 41.65%. Both Freddy Peralta and Hunter Brown have low ownership percentages, making them potentially valuable picks due to their high Median scores and Top_5_finish percentages. Logan Gilbert, on the other hand, has a lower Top_5_finish percentage compared to the others, but his Large Field Own% difference to the average is positive at 12.61%.

An outlier in the dataset is Nestor Cortes, with a significantly higher Large Field Own% and Small Field Own% difference to the average compared to the other players in the top 5. This suggests that he may be a popular choice among DFS players, possibly due to his consistent performance or other factors such as recent form or favorable match-ups.

True AVG breakdown

The top 5 players with the lowest (Best) Weighted True AVG scores are:

Nestor Cortes

Hunter Brown

Logan Gilbert

Freddy Peralta

Zac Gallen

The top 5 players with the highest (Worst) Weighted True AVG scores are:

Jon Gray

Zack Greinke

Jake Irvin

Tony Gonsolin

Marcus Stroman

Based on their baselines and matchup, the five players with the highest Weighted True AVG scores are good bets to perform well. They have below-average Weighted True AVG scores, indicating they are more effective at preventing hits.

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