G-PD Breakdown: MLB DFS Main Slate 5-5-2023

Scoring Percentages and Stacking

In this dataset, the top 5 teams with the highest 8+ runs percentages are SEA, CHC, TB, LAA, and BAL. These percentages represent how often a team scores 8 or more runs in a game, which is a useful metric for assessing team performance. Stacking these teams in daily fantasy sports (DFS) can yield high returns, as their strong offensive capabilities can lead to multiple hitters from the same team having excellent performances.

The top 5 teams with the highest 8+ runs percentages are as follows:

1. San Francisco Giants (SF)

• DK Team Own%: 15.33
• DK LevX: 25.00%
• FD Team Own%: 12.76
• FD LevX: 25.00%
• These percentages indicate that the Giants are an excellent team to stack in DFS as they consistently score 8 or more runs in a game. Their positive LevX scores on both platforms show that they are undervalued and could potentially provide significant returns.

1. Oakland Athletics (OAK)

• DK Team Own%: 55.21
• DK LevX: 10.00%
• FD Team Own%: 38.24
• FD LevX: 20.50%
• Oakland also has a high 8+ runs percentage, making them a solid choice for stacking in DFS. The positive LevX scores suggest that they are undervalued, which could result in substantial returns if they perform well.

1. Kansas City Royals (KC)

• DK Team Own%: 87.06
• DK LevX: -1.00%
• FD Team Own%: 61.66
• FD LevX: 1.00%
• The Royals have a high 8+ runs percentage, but their DK LevX score is negative, which could imply that they may be slightly overvalued on DraftKings. However, they still have a positive LevX score on FanDuel, making them a viable stacking option on that platform.

1. Atlanta Braves (ATL)

• DK Team Own%: 48.83
• DK LevX: 3.50%
• FD Team Own%: 44.27
• FD LevX: 10.00%
• The Braves are another team with a high 8+ runs percentage, making them a good choice for stacking in DFS. Their positive LevX scores on both platforms indicate that they are undervalued, which could result in higher returns.

1. Milwaukee Brewers (MIL)

• DK Team Own%: 39.68
• DK LevX: 16.50%
• FD Team Own%: 41.99
• FD LevX: 10.00%
• The Brewers are also among the top teams for 8+ runs percentage. Their positive LevX scores on both DraftKings and FanDuel show that they are undervalued, making them a great stacking option in DFS for potential high returns.

DK Pitcher Options

Based on the dataset provided, here are the top 5 players with the highest Median scores, along with relevant statistics:

1. Chris Sale (SP, BOS, $7500)

• Median: 19.54
• Top_finish percentage: 22.10%
• Top_5_finish percentage: 53.30%
• Large Field Own%: 10.91 (Difference to average: -3.83)
• Small Field Own%: 12.74 (Difference to average: -2.00)

1. Bailey Ober (SP, MIN, $7200)

• Median: 18.62
• Top_finish percentage: 12.70%
• Top_5_finish percentage: 40.30%
• Large Field Own%: 1.51 (Difference to average: -13.23)
• Small Field Own%: 1.51 (Difference to average: -13.23)

1. Luis Castillo (SP, SEA, $10000)

• Median: 18.08
• Top_finish percentage: 11.90%
• Top_5_finish percentage: 37.30%
• Large Field Own%: 16.90 (Difference to average: 2.16)
• Small Field Own%: 24.70 (Difference to average: 9.96)

1. Zack Wheeler (SP, PHI, $10600)

• Median: 18.05
• Top_finish percentage: 11.40%
• Top_5_finish percentage: 37.80%
• Large Field Own%: 18.24 (Difference to average: 3.50)
• Small Field Own%: 27.39 (Difference to average: 12.65)

1. Cristian Javier (SP, HOU, $9700)

• Median: 17.45
• Top_finish percentage: 8.40%
• Top_5_finish percentage: 37.00%
• Large Field Own%: 11.05 (Difference to average: -3.69)
• Small Field Own%: 13.01 (Difference to average: -1.73)

These players are good bets to perform well based on their high median scores, strong top finish and top 5 finish percentages, as well as their ownership rates in both large and small fields.

FD Pitcher Options

Based on the dataset, the top 5 players with the highest Median scores are:

1. Chris Sale (BOS) – Median: 37.51

• Top_finish: 27.80%
• Top_5_finish: 72.10%
• Large Field Own%: 4.15% (Difference to average: 0.00%)
• Small Field Own%: 4.15% (Difference to average: 0.00%)

1. Bailey Ober (MIN) – Median: 36.99

• Top_finish: 23.20%
• Top_5_finish: 67.60%
• Large Field Own%: 1.34% (Difference to average: -2.81%)
• Small Field Own%: 1.34% (Difference to average: -2.81%)

1. Zack Wheeler (PHI) – Median: 35.40

• Top_finish: 19.40%
• Top_5_finish: 62.00%
• Large Field Own%: 10.97% (Difference to average: -7.49%)
• Small Field Own%: 17.39% (Difference to average: 13.24%)

1. Luis Castillo (SEA) – Median: 31.79

• Top_finish: 7.50%
• Top_5_finish: 46.30%
• Large Field Own%: 8.27% (Difference to average: -6.19%)
• Small Field Own%: 12.00% (Difference to average: 7.85%)

1. Cristian Javier (HOU) – Median: 30.91

• Top_finish: 6.70%
• Top_5_finish: 41.90%
• Large Field Own%: 4.60% (Difference to average: 0.45%)
• Small Field Own%: 4.65% (Difference to average: 0.50%)

These players are good bets to perform well based on their high Median scores, which indicate strong tournament expectations. Additionally, their Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages demonstrate consistent performance in their respective tournaments. The differences in Large Field and Small Field Own% reveal the players’ popularity and potential ownership among other players in the dataset.

True AVG breakdown

Top 5 Lowest (Best) Weighted True AVG scores:

Zack Wheeler

• True AVG (LHH): 0.184
• True AVG (RHH): 0.225
• Weighted True AVG: 0.207 (better than average)
• Opp LHH: 4, Opp RHH: 5

Matthew Boyd

• True AVG (LHH): 0.219
• True AVG (RHH): 0.248
• Weighted True AVG: 0.218 (better than average)
• Opp LHH: 1, Opp RHH: 7

Luis Castillo

• True AVG (LHH): 0.236
• True AVG (RHH): 0.217
• Weighted True AVG: 0.221 (better than average)
• Opp LHH: 2, Opp RHH: 7

Bailey Ober

• True AVG (LHH): 0.248
• True AVG (RHH): 0.193
• Weighted True AVG: 0.224 (better than average)
• Opp LHH: 5, Opp RHH: 4

Chris Sale

• True AVG (LHH): 0.214
• True AVG (RHH): 0.234
• Weighted True AVG: 0.229 (better than average)
• Opp LHH: 2, Opp RHH: 7

Top 5 Highest (Worst) Weighted True AVG scores:

Sean Manaea

• True AVG (LHH): 0.142
• True AVG (RHH): 0.333
• Weighted True AVG: 0.312 (worse than average)
• Opp LHH: 1, Opp RHH: 8

Peyton Battenfield

• True AVG (LHH): 0.366
• True AVG (RHH): 0.185
• Weighted True AVG: 0.286 (worse than average)
• Opp LHH: 5, Opp RHH: 4

Corbin Burnes

• True AVG (LHH): 0.293
• True AVG (RHH): 0.261
• Weighted True AVG: 0.272 (worse than average)
• Opp LHH: 3, Opp RHH: 6

Clayton Kershaw

• True AVG (LHH): 0.319
• True AVG (RHH): 0.241
• Weighted True AVG: 0.267 (worse than average)
• Opp LHH: 3, Opp RHH: 6

Dane Dunning

• True AVG (LHH): 0.249
• True AVG (RHH): 0.273
• Weighted True AVG: 0.265 (worse than average)
• Opp LHH: 3, Opp RHH: 6