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G-PD Breakdown: MLB DFS Main Slate 5-24-2023

James McCool

Scoring Percentages and Stacking

SEA

LAD

ATL

KC

NYM

SEA, LAD, ATL, KC, and NYM all have high percentages of games in which they score 8 or more runs, which suggests that they often perform well offensively and could offer potential value for stacking in daily fantasy sports (DFS). Their high average scores further reinforce their offensive capabilities.

Additionally, each of these teams’ ownership percentages on DraftKings and FanDuel is relatively high, indicating that these teams are popular among DFS players. High ownership, along with strong offensive performance, could lead to valuable points in DFS contests.

The DK LevX and FD LevX values represent the leverage that a team offers on the respective platform. Positive LevX scores indicate that the team is under-owned relative to their scoring potential. Among these teams, LAD, ATL, KC, and NYM all show positive LevX scores on both platforms, suggesting they could provide an edge in contests due to being under-owned.

However, SEA has a negative FD LevX score of -1.50%, indicating that they are over-owned relative to their scoring potential on FanDuel. While this doesn’t necessarily eliminate them as a viable option for stacking, it does suggest that DFS players may need to find additional ways to differentiate their lineups when including SEA to gain a competitive advantage.

DK Pitcher Options

Bryce Miller

James Paxton

Sandy Alcantara

Nestor Cortes

Karl Kauffmann

These players have demonstrated great performance metrics and consistently high scores, which make them strong bets to perform well in future games. An interesting outlier is Karl Kauffmann, who, despite his lower salary and Own% metrics, has still managed to attain a high median score. His low Own% could present an opportunity for savvy players to capitalize on a less popular yet effective choice. However, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results, and all factors should be considered when making selections.

FD Pitcher Options

Bryce Miller (SEA, $10,900)

James Paxton (BOS, $10,400)

Sandy Alcantara (MIA, $8,900)

Kodai Senga (NYM, $9,600)

Nestor Cortes (NYY, $8,300)

All of these players are excellent bets to perform well due to their high Median scores and strong Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages. They are more likely to outperform other players and therefore, could be valuable additions to a team. Kodai Senga of the NYM stands out particularly, with an exceptionally high Large Field Own% of 51.82%, far above the average of 17.55%, indicating a higher level of confidence among participants in his performance. Conversely, James Paxton’s Large Field Own% is significantly lower than the average, which could be a result of his relatively lower Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages, suggesting that he may be a riskier choice despite his high Median score.

True AVG breakdown

The top 5 players with the lowest (Best) Weighted True AVG scores are:

Karl Kauffmann (COL)

James Paxton (BOS)

Kodai Senga (NYM)

Nestor Cortes (NYY)

Sandy Alcantara (MIA)

All five of these players have solid Weighted True AVG scores, demonstrating their overall efficiency in maintaining low batting averages allowed, a key factor in contributing to their teams’ success. Karl Kauffmann stands out with the lowest Weighted True AVG of 0.146, far below the average, indicating his exceptional performance. Interestingly, he also has a significant difference between his True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH), which could be attributed to his right-handed pitching style. James Paxton, though a left-handed pitcher, shows little difference between his True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH), indicating his balanced performance against both left and right-handed hitters. Based on these baselines and matchups, these players have strong potential to perform well in their upcoming games.

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