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G-PD Breakdown: MLB DFS Main Slate 5-15-2023

James McCool

Scoring Percentages and Stacking

ARI

Arizona Diamondbacks are showing solid numbers with high ownership percentages both on DraftKings and FanDuel. Their positive LevX on both platforms suggests that they could be a good team to stack.

SD

San Diego Padres are also showing high ownership percentages. However, their LevX on FanDuel is negative, indicating they might not be a good team to stack on that platform.

OAK

Oakland Athletics have lower ownership percentages, but their LevX on both platforms is high. This suggests they could be a potentially undervalued team to stack.

TOR

Toronto Blue Jays have moderate ownership percentages and positive LevX on both platforms. This suggests they could be a good team to stack.

NYY

New York Yankees have lower ownership percentages but very high LevX on both platforms. This makes them a potentially undervalued team to stack.

Stacking in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) can be a successful strategy as it allows players to maximize their potential points if a particular team performs well. The five teams mentioned above (ARI, SD, OAK, TOR, NYY) are all good candidates for stacking based on their high 8+ runs percentages, indicating that they often score 8 or more runs in a game. However, it’s worth noting that the LevX metric, which measures the leverage a team provides over the average team in the same slate, is negative for SD on FanDuel. This means that they may be overvalued on that platform. Conversely, teams with positive LevX, such as ARI, OAK, TOR, and NYY, are undervalued and thus could be good teams to stack as they may provide better value for money.

DK Pitcher Options

Jameson Taillon

Hunter Greene

Pablo Lopez

Alex Wood

George Kirby

Each of these players are good bets to perform well based on their high median scores and high Top 5 Finish Percentages, which indicate consistent high performance. Their Top Finish Percentages also show that they have a good chance of coming in first place. Their ownership percentages in both large and small fields are also worth noting. For Jameson Taillon and Alex Wood, their low ownership percentages suggest that they might be overlooked by many participants, which could make them valuable picks for their potential high returns. Meanwhile, Hunter Greene, Pablo Lopez, and George Kirby, who have significantly higher ownership percentages, are favored by many, suggesting that they are reliable and consistent performers.

FD Pitcher Options

Jameson Taillon

Hunter Greene

Alex Wood

Pablo Lopez

Charlie Morton

These players are considered good bets due to their high median scores, which indicate consistent performance levels. Notably, Jameson Taillon has the highest median score and also high percentages for Top_finish and Top_5_finish, making him a strong bet. Hunter Greene, though having a lower top finish percentage, has a high top 5 finish percentage and slightly higher ownership in large and small fields, indicating trust among many players.

Alex Wood and Pablo Lopez both exhibit steady performances, reflected in their median scores. Their ownership percentages are lower, which might make them less popular choices but potential winners in a competitive setting.

Charlie Morton stands out with a large field ownership percentage significantly higher than the dataset’s average. Although his top finish and top 5 finish percentages are lower than others, the high ownership percentage indicates that many players believe in his potential to perform well. This may be due to factors not covered in this dataset, such as recent performance trends, team support, or individual skill factors.

True AVG breakdown

The top 5 players with the lowest (Best) Weighted True AVG scores are:

Jameson Taillon

Hunter Greene

Alex Wood

Pablo Lopez

Freddy Peralta

The top 5 players with the highest (Worst) Weighted True AVG scores are:

Jhony Brito

Connor Seabold

Brad Keller

Drew Rucinski

Noah Syndergaard

The five pitchers with the lowest Weighted True AVG scores – Jameson Taillon, Hunter Greene, Alex Wood, Pablo Lopez, and Freddy Peralta – are likely to perform well. They have lower averages of allowed batting averages, indicating they’re generally successful at preventing hits. It’s also worth noting the difference in their True AVG against left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH).

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